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BUSINESS INFORM №4-2015

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16

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling
UDC 330.4: 332.1
Piskunova O. V., Osypova O. I.
Risk of Lowering the Level of Food Security in the Regions of Ukraine under Conditions of Economic Downturn (p. 92 - 98)

The article is aimed at evaluating on the basis of empirical data the risk of lowering the level of food security in the regions of Ukraine and determine its factors by using the econometric simulating techniques. Analysis of scientific papers by domestic and foreign scientists helped to choose binary regression as a toolkit that can be used to evaluate risk as a probability of occurrence of undesirable event, in our case – lowering the level of food security in the regions of Ukraine. On the basis of statistical data on regions of Ukraine during the period from 2000 to 2013, logit and probit regressions with consideration of panel data structure were built. As result of the research has been found that the significant factor, which leads to reduce of the possible deterioration of food security in regions, is the growth of real wages. Besides, reduction of the risk is affected by increased gain in production of cereal crops and vegetables, though not as much as the growth in wages. At the same time, growth in potato production increases the risk of deteriorating food security in the regions.
Keywords: food security of regions of Ukraine, risk of lowering the level of food security, risk factors, panel data, binary regression, logit model, probit model
Fig.: 3. Tabl.: 3. Formulae: 8. Bibl.: 9.

Piskunova Olena V. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Economic and Mathematical Modeling, Kyiv National Economic University named after V. Hetman (54/1 Peremohy Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: episkunova@rambler.ru
Osypova Olha I. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Senior Lecturer, Department of Economic and Mathematical Modeling, Kyiv National Economic University named after V. Hetman (54/1 Peremohy Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: osypovaolha1987@gmail.com

Article is written in Russian
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Reference to this article:
Piskunova, Olena V., and Osypova, Olha I. (2015) “Risk of Lowering the Level of Food Security in the Regions of Ukraine under Conditions of Economic Downturn.” Business Inform 4:92–98.


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