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Estimating the Payback Period of an Investment Project in the Framework of a Fuzzy Set Statement of the Problem
Kotsyuba O. S.

Kotsyuba, Oleksiy S. (2020) “Estimating the Payback Period of an Investment Project in the Framework of a Fuzzy Set Statement of the Problem.” Business Inform 10:173–179.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-10-173-179

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

UDC 330.322.55:519.86

Abstract:
The article is concerned with the problem of fuzzy-set-based evaluation of the payback period of real investment projects. Initially, the most general features of the approach, which is implemented to find a discounted payback period for an investment project in the form of a fuzzy value (number), were highlighted. After that, the approach to modeling the latter with the help of payback function was thoroughly considered. It is identified that, along with the obvious advantages of this instrument, its significant disadvantage, in terms of the original version, is that the scope of the payback function is limited to the investment projects, for which, after a minimum period of time, when there may be a payback scenario among other scenarios, the sequence of fuzzy estimates of the indicator of accumulated discounted cash flow is non-decreasing. The publication formulates a generalized version of the payback function of the investment project, free from this disadvantage. Using conditional data, the proposed modification was tested, which demonstrated its viability. Particular attention is paid to the formulation and approbation of the indicators that can be obtained on the basis of the payback function and which reflect certain, significant in terms of analytical needs aspects of the payback of the investment project in time.

Keywords: uncertainty, fuzziness, fuzzy sets theory, investment project, discounted payback period, payback function, measure of opportunity.

Fig.: 1. Tabl.: 3. Formulae: 10. Bibl.: 16.

Kotsyuba Oleksiy S. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Professor, Department of Business Economics and Entrepreneurship, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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