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The Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Destabilizing Factors on Monetary Policy
Tokarchuk V. V., Nasachenko M. Y.

Tokarchuk, Viktor V., and Nasachenko, Mariia Yu. (2019) “The Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Destabilizing Factors on Monetary Policy.” Business Inform 7:138–143.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2019-7-138-143

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

UDC 519.8:336.7

Abstract:
The article is aimed at substantiating and quantifying the impact of destabilizing factors on achieving the monetary policy goals by applying economic-mathematical modeling, namely, the method of system dynamics. This approach to modeling allows taking into account complex and multiple relationships in an economic system, as well as reproducing the real historical tendencies. On the basis of the developed model, various scenarios of the impact of risks on the price stability, in particular growth of the share of shadow economy, changes in energy prices, imbalance of international trade, are researched. The scenario analysis exemplified that the threats caused by macroeconomic instability have a significant impact on the efficient implementation of monetary policy. Prospects for further research in this direction is the expansion of the macro model by adding the financial, the fiscal and other sectors to best reproduce the functioning of the country’s economy.

Keywords: monetary policy, system dynamics, modeling, scenario analysis, destabilization factors.

Fig.: 6. Bibl.: 14.

Tokarchuk Viktor V. – Candidate of Sciences (Physics and Mathematics), Senior Lecturer, Department of Finance, National University of Food Technologies (68 Volodymyrska Str., Kyiv, 01033, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Nasachenko Mariia Yu. – Master, Department of Finance, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy (2 Skovorody Str., Kyiv, 04655, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

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