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Modeling the Impact of Intensification of Migration Processes on the Socio-Economic Stability in Ukraine
Lukianenko I. G., Novik A. Y.

Lukianenko, Iryna G., and Novik, Alina Yu. (2021) “Modeling the Impact of Intensification of Migration Processes on the Socio-Economic Stability in Ukraine.” Business Inform 5:123–133.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2021-5-123-133

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

UDC 519:86:331.556

Abstract:
The article is aimed at elaborating an adequate mathematical instrumentarium for the formation of migration flows to assess their impact on the socio-economic stability together with unshadowing the Ukrainian economy, as well as to identify efficient measures of the State-based policy directed towards regulating these flows to prevent risks of socio-economic destabilization. The article carries out an empirical analysis of the peculiarities of the development of migration processes in Ukraine and their impact on the socio-economic state in both the medium and the long term perspective. A system of complementary dynamic macromodels of the Ukrainian economy is developed, which includes a vector autoregression model and a separate complex of simulated submodels of systemic dynamics aimed at researching migration processes and their impact on the indicators of socio-economic stability. At this, the developed models of system dynamics can be combined into a single original simulation macromodel of Ukraine, and be used independently subject to the research goals. This allows to adequately describe complex nonlinear processes, systemically identify and examine the mechanisms of supply and demand formation in the labor market, taking into account the shadow component and assess their impact on the formation of the size of migration flows, as well as to research the consequences of increasing the intensity of migration processes on the socio-economic stability in Ukraine. The implementation of the developed complex of dynamic models has allowed, in particular, to calculate the annual value of the net migration flow in Ukraine through the aging chain of the population; to empirically confirm that migration flows in Ukraine are underestimated; to detect the dynamic structure of the net migration balance and a noticeable fading of the amplitude of migration processes over time, which indicates the presence of a balancing structure for the formation of migration flows.

Keywords: migration, labor market, socio-economic stability, modeling of migration processes, vector autoregressional models of migration, system dynamics, shadow economy.

Fig.: 7. Tabl.: 1. Bibl.: 22.

Lukianenko Iryna G. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Head of the Department, Department of Finance, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy (2 Skovorody Str., Kyiv, 04655, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Novik Alina Yu. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Senior Lecturer, Department of Finance, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy (2 Skovorody Str., Kyiv, 04655, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

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