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Multifactor Model of Assessment of Risks and Their Impact on the Economic Security of Enterprise
Bohdaniuk I. V., Mandych S. M.

Bohdaniuk, Ihor V., and Mandych, Serhii M. (2024) “Multifactor Model of Assessment of Risks and Their Impact on the Economic Security of Enterprise.” Business Inform 9:148–153.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2024-9-148-153

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

UDC 330.131.7:338.24:658

Abstract:
The article is devoted to the development of a mathematical model for assessing the risks that may affect the agro-industrial enterprises of Ukraine. The article highlights the need to take into account external and internal factors, such as economic, military, material, technical, technological and climatic risks, which significantly affect the activities of agricultural enterprises in modern conditions. The main aim of the study consists in building an effective multifactor model of risk analysis and forecasting, which takes into account the weight of each risk, the probability of occurrence, and the impact on the economic security of enterprise. To do this, it is proposed to use the cumulative risk indicator (R), which is calculated on the basis of the weight of each risk (Wi), its probability (Xi) and its impact (Si) on the financial stability of the enterprise. The authors examine in detail different types of risks, including economic ones, such as exchange rate fluctuations and rising resource prices; military risks associated with possible losses as a result of hostilities; logistics risks, such as port blockades and export disruptions; technological risks associated with outdated equipment and problems of access to the latest technologies; climate risks caused by adverse weather conditions. Each of these risks has a different level of impact on the economic security of enterprise, which is taken into account in the developed model. The article emphasizes that the application of the multifactor model contributes to improving the efficiency of managerial decisions directed towards minimizing risks and ensuring the stability of enterprise. Thanks to the flexibility of the model, businesses can adapt it to their specific conditions, adding new risks or changing the weights of existing ones, and thus making it versatile. Additionally, the model allows for real-time risk monitoring, which helps businesses respond quickly to changes in the external environment and make informed strategic decisions. Summing up, it can be said that the multifactor model proposed in the study is a significant tool for reducing uncertainty and increasing the resilience of agro-industrial enterprises to risks both at the internal and external levels. Its versatility allows for the assessment of short-term threats and for long-term forecasting, which is crucial for planning the sustainable development of enterprises in unstable conditions.

Keywords: economic security, multifactor model, risk assessment, agro-industrial enterprises, external risks, internal risks, financial stability, risk management, mathematical methods, enterprise stability.

Formulae: 1. Bibl.: 11.

Bohdaniuk Ihor V. – Candidate of Sciences (Law), Deputy Director, Livestock Farming Institute of National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine (1a Tvarynnykiv Str., Kharkiv, 61026, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Mandych Serhii M. – Research Associate, Department of Economics, Management and Transfer of Innovations in Animal Husbandry, Livestock Farming Institute of National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine (1a Tvarynnykiv Str., Kharkiv, 61026, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

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Pashniuk, L. “Zahrozy ekonomichnii bezpetsi pidpryiemstva ta zasoby yikh neitralizatsii“ [Threats of Economic Security and the Means of their Neutralization]. Visnyk Kyivskoho natsionalnoho universytetu im. T. Shevchenka. Seriia «Ekonomika». 2013. http://bulletin-econom.univ.kiev.ua/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/151_20.pdf
Baldzhy, M. D. “Udoskonalennia protsesu upravlinnia ekonomichnymy ryzykamy pry pryiniatti narodnohospodarskykh rishen“ [Improving the Process of Economic Risk Management When Making National Economic Decisions]. Visnyk sotsialno-ekonomichnykh doslidzhen. 2013. http://surl.li/wwdeag
Ostankova, L. A., and Shevchenko, N. Yu. Analiz, modeliuvannia ta upravlinnia ekonomichnymy ryzykamy [Analysis, Modeling and Management of Economic Risks]. Kyiv: TsUL, 2023.
Kovalenko, V. V. “Metodychni pidkhody shchodo diahnostyky rivnia ekonomichnoi bezpeky pidpryiemstva“ [Methodical Approaches to Diagnosing the Level of Economic Security of an Enterprise]. Molodyi vchenyi. 2016. http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/molv_2016_4_23
Tiulenieva, Yu. V. “Intehratsiinyi pidkhid vyznachennia ryzykiv pidpryiemstva“ [An Integrated Approach to Determining Enterprise Risks]. Efektyvna ekonomika. 2013. http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=1716
Ministerstvo ahrarnoi polityky ta prodovolstva Ukrainy. https://minagro.gov.ua
Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua
“Analitychnyi zvit Deloitte dlia ahrarnoho sektora“ [Analytical Report of Deloitte for the Agricultural Sector]. https://www2.deloitte.com/ua/uk.html

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