REGISTRATION CERTIFICATE

KV #19905-9705 PR dated 02.04.2013.

 FOUNDERS

RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

According to the decision No. 802 of the National Council of Television and Radio Broadcasting of Ukraine dated 14.03.2024, is registered as a subject in the field of print media.
ID R30-03156

 PUBLISHER

Liburkina L. M.

 SITE SECTIONS

Main page

Editorial staff

Editorial policy

Annotated catalogue (2011)

Annotated catalogue (2012)

Annotated catalogue (2013)

Annotated catalogue (2014)

Annotated catalogue (2015)

Annotated catalogue (2016)

Annotated catalogue (2017)

Annotated catalogue (2018)

Annotated catalogue (2019)

Annotated catalogue (2020)

Annotated catalogue (2021)

Annotated catalogue (2022)

Annotated catalogue (2023)

Annotated catalogue (2024)

Annotated catalogue (2025)

Thematic sections of the journal

Proceedings of scientific conferences

Modeling the Impact of Problem Loans and Macroeconomic Factors on the Financial Performance of Ukrainian Banks
Riabushka L. B., Kryklii O. A., Batanin A. D.

Riabushka, Liudmyla B., Kryklii, Olena A., and Batanin, Artem D. (2025) “Modeling the Impact of Problem Loans and Macroeconomic Factors on the Financial Performance of Ukrainian Banks.” Business Inform 8:399–408.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2025-8-399-408

Section: Finance, Money Circulation and Credit

UDC 336.77

Abstract:
This article examines the impact of problem loans (PL) and key macroeconomic factors on the financial performance of Ukraine’s banking system under martial law. It demonstrates that a high level of PL limits banks’ lending capacity, reduces profitability, increases systemic risks, and negatively affects the trust of investors and depositors. The aim of the study is to develop a model that allows for a quantitative assessment of the relationships between the share of PL, macroeconomic indicators, and bank performance during 2015–2024. Correlation-regression analysis methods were used for this purpose. The modeling results indicate that the greatest positive effects on financial performance come from lending volumes, cashless transactions, attracted deposits, and currency exchange rate dynamics, while the share of non-performing loans, the consumer price index, and the key policy rate have a negative effect. A negative correlation was identified between the level of PC and banking activity, emphasizing the need to improve internal credit risk management mechanisms. The proposed recommendations include managing the resource base, developing digital services, improving the quality of lending, and adapting banks to macroeconomic conditions. The results obtained are practically significant for the development of strategies to increase the financial stability of Ukraine’s banking system under crisis conditions and for establishing effective mechanisms for managing problem loans.

Keywords: problem loans, non-performing loans (NPL), banking system, financial performance, macroeconomic factors, credit risk, correlation-regression analysis, martial law.

Fig.: 4. Tabl.: 2. Bibl.: 18.

Riabushka Liudmyla B. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Financial Technologies and Entrepreneurship, Sumy State University (116 Kharkivska Str., Sumy, 40007, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Kryklii Olena A. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Financial Technologies and Entrepreneurship, Sumy State University (116 Kharkivska Str., Sumy, 40007, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Batanin Artem D. – Masters Student, Sumy State University (116 Kharkivska Str., Sumy, 40007, Ukraine)

List of references in article

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (2017). Sound practices: Implications of fintech developments. Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org
Curak, M., Pepur, S., & Poposki, K. (2013). Determinants of non-performing loans – evidence from Southeastern European banking systems. Banks & Bank Systems, 8(1), 45–53.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. (2023). Ukraine Resilience and Livelihoods Framework. https://www.ebrd.com/home/work-with-us/projects/psd/53662.html
European Banking Authority. (2017). Guidelines on management of non-performing and forborne exposures. https://www.eba.europa.eu/activities/single-rulebook/regulatory-activities/credit-risk/guidelines-management-non-performing
European Banking Authority. (2018). Non-performing loans in the Banking Union. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/614491/IPOL_BRI(2018)614491_EN.pdf
European Central Bank – Banking Supervision. (2021). Supervisory expectations for NPL management. https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/framework/priorities/non-performing-loans/html/index.en.html
Kostiuchenko, O., Stefanchuk, M., Korobtsova, D., & Soniuk, O. (2021). Minimizatsiia problemnykh kredytiv v bankakh: ekonomiko-pravovyi aspekt derzhavnoho rehuliuvannia. Financial and Credit Activity Problems of Theory and Practice, 2(37), 47–54. https://doi.org/10.18371/fcaptp.v2i37.229686
Kovalska, O. V. (2023). Upravlinnia problemnymy kredytamy bankiv [Management of problemni kredyty bankiv]. ChNU imeni Petra Mohyly. https://krs.chmnu.edu.ua/jspui/bitstream/123456789/2655/1/Kovalska.pdf
Krukhmal, O. V., Pavlenko, L. D., & Tarasenko, Ya. Yu. (2021). Problemni kredyty bankiv: sutnist ta prychyny vynyknennia [Problem loans of banks: essence and causes of occurrence]. Modern Economics, (25), 120–126. https://modecon.mnau.edu.ua/problem-loans-essence-and-causes/
Larionova, K., & Tanasiienko, N. (2023). Teoretychni osnovy upravlinnia kredytnym ryzykom banku. Visnyk Khmelnytskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Ekonomichni nauky, (5), 422–428. https://doi.org/10.31891/2307-5740-2023-322-5-68
Manz, F. (2019). Determinants of non-performing loans: What do we know? A systematic review and avenues for future research. Management Review Quarterly, 69(4), 351–389.
Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. (2025, 3 kvitnia). Onovleno pidkhody shchodo zvazhennia aktyvnykh bankivskykh operatsii za kredytnym ryzykom. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/news/all/onovleno-pidhodi-schodo-zvajennya-aktivnih-bankivskih-operatsiy-za-kreditnim-rizikom
Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. (2025). Riven nepratsiuiuchykh kredytiv. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/stability/npl
Nikolaieva, A. (2022). Teoretyko-metodychni aspekty funktsionuvannia systemy upravlinnia problemnymy kredytamy v bankakh [Theoretical and methodological aspects of the functioning of the problem loan management system in banks]. Ekonomichnyi forum, (12(3)), 185–193.
Ohorodnyk, V. V. (2019). Problemni kredyty bankiv z derzhavnoiu uchastiu v Ukraini (suchasnyi stan ta prychyny vynyknennia) [Non-performing loans of state-owned banks in Ukraine (current state and causes)]. Naukovyi visnyk Uzhhorodskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Seriia : Mizhnarodni ekonomichni vidnosyny ta svitove hospodarstvo, (23(2)), 38–43.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2019). Resolving non-performing loans in Europe. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264314492-en
Ozili, P. K. (2019). Non-performing loans and financial development: new evidence. The Journal of Risk Finance, 20(1), 59–81.
Prykazniuk, N., & Zahorodniuk, Yu. (2022). Suchasni pidkhody do upravlinnia problemnymy kredytamy v bankakh. Prychornomorski ekonomichni studii, (73), 103–109.

 FOR AUTHORS

License Contract

Conditions of Publication

Article Requirements

Regulations on Peer-Reviewing

Publication Contract

Current Issue

Frequently asked questions

 INFORMATION

The Plan of Scientific Conferences

 OUR PARTNERS

Journal «The Problems of Economy»