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RESEARCH CENTER FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

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Liburkina L. M.

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A Forecast of Ukraine’s Geo-Economic Development Until 2035 Amid Global Transformations
Lykhvar V. V.

Lykhvar, Valeriy V. (2026) “A Forecast of Ukraine’s Geo-Economic Development Until 2035 Amid Global Transformations.” Business Inform 7:27–39.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-7-27-39

Section: Economic Theory

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 330.341.2:339.9(477)

Abstract:
In the context of contemporary global economic transformations, the issues of long-term forecasting of national economic development and determining the position of countries within the emerging geo-economic architecture of the world are becoming increasingly important. The intensification of geo-economic fragmentation, digitalization, the rapid development of artificial intelligence, the energy transition, the transformation of international trade, and changes in global value chains create both new challenges and opportunities for national economies. At the same time, insufficient attention has been paid in the academic literature to comprehensive forecasting of Ukraine’s geo-economic development under conditions of long-term global transformations and postwar economic modernization. The aim of the article is to forecast the geo-economic development of Ukraine until 2035 in the context of global transformations and to substantiate strategic directions for enhancing its geo-economic competitiveness. The methodological framework of the study is based on a systems approach, methods of analysis and synthesis, comparative analysis, strategic analysis, as well as scenario planning and elements of foresight research. The information base includes analytical and forecasting reports of international organizations (IMF, World Bank, OECD, WTO, UNCTAD, WEF, and IEA), official statistical data, and contemporary scientific publications devoted to geo-economic development, international competitiveness, and strategic forecasting. The study examines the key global megatrends that will shape the development of the world economy until 2035, including geo-economic fragmentation, digital transformation, the expansion of artificial intelligence, the energy transition, and demographic changes. The main geo-economic prerequisites for Ukraine’s development are identified, and their potential impact on long-term economic growth is assessed. Based on the scenario approach, three alternative scenarios of Ukraine’s geo-economic development until 2035 are developed: conservative, baseline, and optimistic. The results demonstrate that the most promising development trajectory is The results demonstrate that the most promising development model is the scenario of structural economic modernization based on innovation-driven growth, digital economy expansion, high-tech industries, defense-industrial development, renewable energy advancement, and deeper integration into the European economic space. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a comprehensive forecast of Ukraine’s geo-economic development until 2035, taking into account contemporary global megatrends and providing a system of alternative development scenarios for the national economy. The practical significance of the results is determined by the possibility of their application in the formulation of State economic development strategies, postwar recovery programs, and measures aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s international competitiveness under conditions of long-term global transformations.

Keywords: geo-economic development; global transformations; economic forecasting; scenario analysis; competitiveness; digital economy; economic growth; Ukraine.

Tabl.: 4. Bibl.: 30.

Lykhvar Valeriy V. – General Director, SE «Zepter International Ukraine» (office 24, 25, 13b Staronavodnytska Str., Kyiv, 01015, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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