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RESEARCH CENTER FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

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ID R30-03156

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Liburkina L. M.

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Modelling Spatial Externalities and the Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps in the Management of Leading Economic Development in the Region
Slukin H. I.

Slukin, Heorhii I. (2026) “Modelling Spatial Externalities and the Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps in the Management of Leading Economic Development in the Region.” Business Inform 7:929–929.

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 0

UDC 338.2:338.1:332.1

Abstract:
In the context of an exogenous military shock, Ukraine’s socioeconomic landscape has undergone profound distortion. Traditional factors of production in the modelling framework are losing their predictive power, whilst regional dynamics are increasingly determined by the level of social cohesion. This now gives rise to a macroeconomic paradox: society’s reliance on closed networks (bonding) acts as a tactical buffer, but strategically creates an «institutional survival trap» that hinders development. This necessitates a shift towards comprehensive non-linear spatial and scenario-based modelling of the impact of social cohesion on economic development, both in individual regions and in the country as a whole. The aim of this article is to develop a toolkit for scenario-based forecasting of a region’s forward-looking economic development, based on methods of spatial econometrics and fuzzy cognitive modelling in the context of economic fragmentation. A hybrid approach was applied: spatial clustering (k-means) to analyse the transformation of regional profiles (2021 vs 2024); spatial econometric modelling with dynamic instrumentation (SLX-IV, SErrM-IV, SDM-IV) using panel data from 2016–2024; the fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) method for scenario-based simulation of macroeconomic indicators. Evidence has been provided of a phase transition in the regional economy: the crisis disrupted the pre-war equilibrium, leading to a large-scale expansion of the «inertial equilibrium» cluster. An anomalous value of the multiplier in the SDM model confirmed the discontinuity of the continuum. Based on the local externalities model (SLX-IV), the effect of the «institutional shield» of neighbouring regions and intense spatial competition for human capital were confirmed. The integration of econometric estimates into the FCM enabled the development of management scenarios. It has been demonstrated that the «Hybrid Scenario» (synergy between digitalisation and decentralisation) breaks the «survival trap», generating an increase in economic stability (+0.7 per cent) and investment (+0.6 per cent). The recovery strategy requires a shift towards the proactive construction of open cohesion. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a methodology that combines the tools of spatial econometrics with the FCM framework to generate asymmetric policy impulses, taking into account the spatial fragmentation of the Ukrainian economy.

Keywords: social cohesion; spatial modelling; cluster analysis; fuzzy cognitive maps; regional development; forward-looking economic development; scenario planning; growth management.

Fig.: 5. Tabl.: 3. Formulae: 1. Bibl.: 28.

Slukin Heorhii I. – Postgraduate Student, Department of Economic Cybernetics and Applied Economics, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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