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RESEARCH CENTER FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

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ID R30-03156

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Liburkina L. M.

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Forecasting Realized Purchase Demand in Key International e-Commerce Markets
Kozub V. O., Kozub S. O.

Kozub, Viktoriia O., and Kozub, Serhii O. (2026) “Forecasting Realized Purchase Demand in Key International e-Commerce Markets.” Business Inform 9:734–734.

Section: Economics of Trade and Services

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 0

UDC 339.138:004.738.5:519.23

Abstract:
The academic literature on international e-commerce has accumulated substantial work on the theoretical foundations of e-commerce, its regulatory environment, and marketing promotion tools. However, research grounded exclusively in primary official statistical sources for a comparative analysis of purchase demand dynamics across three key markets simultaneously remains scarce, and existing forecasting models largely fail to treat inflation as an independent macroeconomic driver of demand. This creates a gap between academic generalizations and the practical needs of international e-commerce enterprises for evidence-based, regionally differentiated demand forecasting. The aim of the study is a comprehensive analysis of realized purchase demand dynamics in the international e-commerce markets of the USA, the European Union, and China over recent years, and, on this basis, the development of regionally differentiated forecast scenarios and practical recommendations for industry enterprises. The study applies systematization of primary-source data, the index method for constructing demand-dynamics time series against a fixed comparison base, Pearson correlation analysis to establish the relationship between quarterly inflation and the demand index, a seasonal-extrapolation method to estimate quarterly indicators for the most recent period, and trend analysis to build forecast scenarios for the near-term outlook. Demand in the U.S. market shows steady, consistent growth throughout the study period; the EU market shifts from a slower to a more stable upward trajectory; the Chinese market, despite a pronounced downturn early in the period, gradually recovers, though it does not return to its initial peak growth rate. Recalculated over the full time series, correlation analysis confirms a strong, stable inverse demand–inflation relationship in the USA, a moderate inverse relationship in the EU that proves stronger than initially estimated, and a moderate direct relationship in China. The asynchronous nature of development across the three markets is demonstrated, substantiating the need to replace a unified forecasting approach with regionally differentiated models. The scientific novelty lies in constructing a comparative index-and-correlation analytical apparatus for demand, verified against primary official sources, applied simultaneously to the world’s three largest e-commerce markets, which made it possible to refute the widespread claim of stagnation in the Chinese market and to refine the strength of the inflation–demand relationship for the USA and the EU. The study formulates concrete, regionally oriented recommendations on investment priorities, inventory management, and logistics for international e-commerce enterprises operating in the U.S., EU, and Chinese markets.

Keywords: international electronic commerce; e-commerce; demand forecasting; international markets; digital economy; electronic trade; correlation analysis; trend forecasting; consumer demand.

Fig.: 4. Tabl.: 5. Bibl.: 20.

Kozub Viktoriia O. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Professor, Department of International Economics and Management, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61165, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Kozub Serhii O. – PhD, Senior Research Stuff Member, Head of the Laboratory, Laboratory for Forensic Economic and Commodity Research and Examination of Intellectual Property Objects, National Scientific Center «Institute of Forensic Expertise named after Hon. Prof. M. S. Bokarius» (8a Zolochivska Str., Kharkiv, 61177, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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