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RESEARCH CENTER FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

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Liburkina L. M.

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Dynamics and Structural Transformation of Direct Damage, Economic Losses, and Recovery Needs of Ukraine’s Critical Infrastructure: A Comparative Analysis of RDNA1–RDNA5
Trushkina N. V.

Trushkina, Nataliia V. (2026) “Dynamics and Structural Transformation of Direct Damage, Economic Losses, and Recovery Needs of Ukraine’s Critical Infrastructure: A Comparative Analysis of RDNA1–RDNA5.” Business Inform 9:8–21.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-9-8-21

Section: Economic Theory

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 338.4(477):355/359

Abstract:
An insufficiently explored issue is how direct damage, economic losses, and recovery needs transform simultaneously under prolonged wartime impacts, to what extent their sectoral structures are aligned, and how the role of core infrastructure systems in shaping the consequences of war changes over time. Against this background, the aim of the article is to identify the patterns of dynamic and structural transformation of these indicators through a comparative analysis of RDNA1–RDNA5. The empirical basis comprises five rounds of the Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment, covering the period from the beginning of the full-scale war through 31 December 2025. The methodological framework combines structural and dynamic, index, coefficient, and ranking analyses, analysis of sectoral shares, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, and decomposition of sectoral contributions. The results show that between RDNA1 and RDNA5, direct damage increased by 100.3%, recovery needs by 68.6%, and the estimated cumulative volume of economic losses by 164.6%. The analysis reveals a lack of proportional correspondence between the physical, economic, and resource dimensions of the consequences of war, substantial divergence in sectoral rankings, and distinct trajectories of sectoral concentration. Core infrastructure sectors accounted for 42.2% of the increase in direct damage, 29.5% of the increase in economic losses, and 50.2% of the increase in recovery needs, indicating their growing role in shaping future resource requirements for recovery. The novelty of the study lies in the integrated structural and dynamic comparison of RDNA1–RDNA5 as consecutive analytical snapshots formed under differing temporal, informational, and methodological conditions. This approach makes it possible to identify asymmetries between damage, losses, and needs, as well as changes in sectoral concentration, rankings, and the contribution of core infrastructure systems. It is demonstrated that the scale of direct damage alone is not a sufficient criterion for setting recovery priorities. The practical value of the study lies in providing an analytical basis for the multidimensional prioritization of recovery and public investment, taking into account direct damage, economic losses, recovery needs, and the functional significance of infrastructure sectors in Ukraine.

Keywords: national economy; critical infrastructure; core infrastructure sectors; structural and dynamic analysis; direct damage; economic losses; recovery needs; structural transformation; sectoral structure; sectoral concentration; infrastructure resilience; critical infrastructure resilience; postwar economic reconstruction; public investment.

Tabl.: 5. Bibl.: 24.

Trushkina Nataliia V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Senior Research Stuff Member, Senior Research Fellow, Sector of Industrial Policy and Innovative Development of the Department of Industrial Policy and Energy Security, Research Center for Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine (2 floor 1-a Inzhenernyi Ln., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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