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Liburkina L. M.

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Assessing the Resilience of Economic Systems under Uncertainty: Existing Approaches and Their Practical Implementation
Kyzym M. O., Khaustova V. Y., Reshetnyak O. I., Popovych M. V., Yudenko Y. V.

Kyzym, Mykola O. et al. (2025) “Assessing the Resilience of Economic Systems under Uncertainty: Existing Approaches and Their Practical Implementation.” Business Inform 10:48–65.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2025-10-48-65

Section: Economic Theory

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 338.24.01;338.246.88

Abstract:
The aim of this article is to examine existing approaches discussed in the scientific literature for assessing the economic resilience of systems and to determine the possibilities of applying them to evaluate Ukraine’s resilience under threats in conditions of war and uncertainty. The article presents a comprehensive study of methodological approaches for assessing economic resilience at various levels – from national to regional and sectoral. The authors clarify the essence of the concept of «resilience» as the ability of an economic system to withstand external shocks, adapt, and recover from crisis impacts while maintaining its development potential. It is found that economic resilience encompasses not only endurance and stability but also a dynamic capacity for transformation, ensuring sustainable long-term development. The article systematizes key approaches to evaluating economic resilience, categorized by purpose, data collection and analysis methods, and the way indicators are defined. Four main evaluation methods are distinguished: indicator systems, calculation of composite indices, modeling, and combined approaches. It is shown that the most widely used methods are index-based, including the Economic Resilience Index (ERI), FM Global Resilience Index, State Resilience Index (SRI), RIMA and RIMA-II (FAO), Resindicis, Resilio, and County Economic Resilience Index (CERI). These enable the assessment of resilience levels across economic, social, political, and environmental factors. Special attention is given to I. H?fele’s model, which considers three levels of economic system response: absorption, recovery, and adaptation/transformation, reflecting short-, medium-, and long-term crisis response scenarios. The importance of considering the dynamics of shocks, time lags, and the nature of productivity recovery has been emphasized. Analysis of existing models has shown that most of them are static and do not account for the duration, combination, or multiplicative effects of crises. The study summarizes the limitations of current methodologies – from insufficient qualitative data and static models to the disregard of combined risks. The authors propose implementing dynamic analytical tools aimed at real-world uncertainty conditions, including the use of fuzzy logic to assess the state of the economic system under limited information. The research results have practical significance for developing an integrated methodology to evaluate Ukraine’s economic resilience, enabling the identification of vulnerable areas of the economy, forecasting crisis consequences, and designing effective policies for sustainable recovery.

Keywords: resilience, economic system, economic resilience, assessment, shock, risk, crisis, development potential, sustainable development, uncertainty, composite indices, fuzzy logic.

Fig.: 1. Tabl.: 2. Bibl.: 41.

Kyzym Mykola O. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Corresponding Member of NAS of Ukraine, Head of Department, Department of Human Development Research, Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (60 Tarasa Shevchenka Blvd, Kyiv, 01032, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Khaustova Viktoriia Ye. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Director, Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine (2 floor 1-a Inzhenernyi Ln., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Reshetnyak Olena I. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Head of, Sector of Industrial Policy and Innovative Development of the Department of Industrial Policy and Energy Security, Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine (2 floor 1-a Inzhenernyi Ln., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Popovych Mykhailo V. – Postgraduate Student, Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine (2 floor 1-a Inzhenernyi Ln., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Yudenko Yevhen V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Candidate on Doctor Degree, Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine (2 floor 1-a Inzhenernyi Ln., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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