BUSINESS INFORM JOURNAL.

УКР

ENG

Search:

REGISTRATION CERTIFICATE

KV #19905-9705 PR dated 02.04.2013.

FOUNDERS

RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

According to the decision No. 802 of the National Council of Television and Radio Broadcasting of Ukraine dated 14.03.2024, is registered as a subject in the field of print media.
ID R30-03156

PUBLISHER

Liburkina L. M.

SITE SECTIONS

Export-Oriented Model of Economic Development in Ukraine: A Retrospective Analysis
Ishchenko S. V., Maslak O. I., Tkach V. P.

Ishchenko, Svitlana V., Maslak, Olga I., and Tkach, Vitalii P. (2025) “Export-Oriented Model of Economic Development in Ukraine: A Retrospective Analysis.” Business Inform 12:116–129.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2025-12-116-129

Section: Mechanisms of Regulation of the Economy

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 0

Download article (pdf) -

UDC 338.27:339.56(477)

Abstract:
The aim of the article is to conduct a retrospective analysis of parameter dynamics and to identify trends in the export-oriented growth of Ukraine’s national economy, as well as to determine the prerequisites for the formation of its current level of adaptability. To achieve this aim, the authors carried out a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic and foreign trade indicators of Ukraine’s economy in order to uncover long-term trends, internal imbalances, and structural transformations that influenced the trajectory of economic growth during 1995–2024. As a basic indicator of the national economy’s development, the authors used GDP per capita and analyzed the synchrony of changes in this indicator with the per capita export volume. The authors found that the growth of macroeconomic and foreign trade indicators during the observation period was fragmented, without forming a stable long-term development trajectory under the influence of global and local crises, one of the most significant of which was initially a hidden hybrid, and later overt military aggression by the russian federation against Ukraine. It has been found that the negative long-term impact on the development of the Ukrainian economy is caused by its structural degradation, which is manifested in the persistent and growing dominance of raw material and low-processed product exports, as well as in the long-term trend of declining economic complexity. Based on the results of the conducted research, the authors conclude that Ukraine’s export-oriented economic development model is highly unstable and systemically vulnerable, as evidenced by the large amplitude of economic fluctuations alongside the high sensitivity of macroeconomic indicators to external and internal shocks. To create the conditions for sustainable long-term growth, the authors emphasize the need to increase the technological complexity of industrial production, diversify exports by product and geography, integrate into global value chains, and foster innovation-driven development.

Keywords: export-oriented development, economic growth, economic complexity, export structure, economic adaptability.

Fig.: 12. Tabl.: 1. Bibl.: 24.

Ishchenko Svitlana V. – Applicant, Department of Economics, Mykhailo Ostrohradskyi Kremenchuk National University (20 Pershotravneva Str., Kremenchuk, 39600, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Maslak Olga I. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Head of the Department, Department of Economics, Mykhailo Ostrohradskyi Kremenchuk National University (20 Pershotravneva Str., Kremenchuk, 39600, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Tkach Vitalii P. – Applicant, Department of Economics, Mykhailo Ostrohradskyi Kremenchuk National University (20 Pershotravneva Str., Kremenchuk, 39600, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

Adelman I. (2000). Fifty Years of Economic Development: What Have We Learned?. World Bank Group. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/625131468761704307/pdf/28737.pdf
Ben-David D. & Kimhi A. (2000). Trade and the rate of income convergence. National Bureau of Economic Research, 7642. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7642
Briguglio L., Cordina G., Bugeja S. & Farrugia N. (2006). Conceptualizing and measuring economic resilience. University of Malta. https://www.um.edu.mt/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/44122/resilience_index.pdf
Callen T. Gross Domestic Product: an Economy’s All. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/gross-domestic-product-GDP
Derzhavnyi komitet statystyky Ukrainy. Derzhavnyi komitet statystyky Ukrainy [State Statistics Committee of Ukraine]. Derzhavnyi komitet statystyky Ukrainy. https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/
EDA. Economic Development Glossary. U.S. Economic Development Administration. https://www.eda.gov/about/economic-development-glossary
Giles J. A. & Williams C. L. Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results. Part 2. University of Victoria. https://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/_assets/docs/econometrics/ewp0002.pdf
Giles J. A. & Williams C. L. Export-led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Noncausality Results. Part 1. University of Victoria. https://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/_assets/docs/econometrics/ewp0001.pdf
Harrison A. (2006). Globalization and Poverty. National Bureau of Economic Research, 12347. https://doi.org/10.3386/w12347
Harvard Kennedy School. The Atlas of Economic Complexity. Harvard Kennedy School. https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/
Hausmann R. (2024). Export-led Growth. Harvard Growth Lab. https://ideas.repec.org/p/glh/wpfacu/231.html
Hidalgo C. A. & Hausmann R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 26(106), 10570–10575. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106
Ilter C. (2017). What Economic and Social Factors Affect GDP Per Capita: A Study on 40 Countries. Journal of Global Strategic Management, 2(11), 51–62. https://doi.org/10.20460/JGSM.2018.252
Karunaratne N. D. (1980). Export oriented industrialization strategies. Intereconomics, 5(15), 217–223. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02924575
Mazur A. B. (2018). Uzahalnennia ta analiz pokaznykiv ekonomichnoho rozvytku rehioniv Ukrainy [Generalization and analysis of indicators of economic development of regions of Ukraine]. Biznes Inform, 5, 80–85. https://www.business-inform.net/export_pdf/business-inform-2018-5_0-pages-80_85.pdf
Myint H. & Krueger A. O. Economic development. Britannica Money. https://www.britannica.com/money/economic-development
OEC. Observatory of Economic Complexity. https://oec.world/en
Pazos F. (1953). Economic Development and Financial Stability. IMF Economic Review, 2(3), 228–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/3866232
Reed T. (2024). Export-Led Industrial Policy for Developing Countries: Is There a Way to Pick Winners?. World Bank Group, Development Research Group. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/26a750d3-113f-41e1-8a4d-0498f59dd253/content
Rodrik D. Growth Strategies. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://ssrn.com/abstract=461371
Roser M. (2021, May 13). What is economic growth? And why is it so important?. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/what-is-economic-growth
Sharma S. (2022). On Exports and Economic Growth: Revisiting Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Including North–South Divide. SEISENSE Journal of Management, 1(5), 31–48. https://doi.org/10.33215/sjom.v5i1.733
UN Trade and Development. UNCTADstat Data Centre. UN Trade and Development. https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/
World Bank Group. Metadata glossary. World Bank Group. https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/statistical-capacity-indicators/series/5.51.01.10.gdp

FOR AUTHORS

License Contract

Conditions of Publication

Article Requirements

Regulations on Peer-Reviewing

Publication Contract

Current Issue

Frequently asked questions

INFORMATION

The Plan of Scientific Conferences

OUR PARTNERS

Journal «The Problems of Economy»

The site and its metadata are licensed under CC BY-SA.

Write to webmaster