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22

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling
UDC 658.012.2
Sokolovska Z. M., Yatsenko N. V.
System-dynamic Models in Forecasting Development of Complex Economic Systems (p. 121 - 132)
The goal of the article lies in consideration and justification of possibilities of use of the system-dynamic approach in forecasting development of a complex economic system using example of dynamics of a sea port. Generalising scientific works of many scientists, the article holds that the necessary condition of development of minimalistic models, adequate to real systems and set tasks, is a proper selection of methodology of modelling, relevant software and plans of conduct of simulation experiments. The article justifies expediency of use of the system-dynamic methodology depending on the level of abstraction and degree of aggregation of the studied processes. The article offers a set of models directed at forecasting dynamics of the operation activity of a port and connected financial flows for various time prospective. The article shows a general structure and fragments of flow charts of a model of long-term forecasting the port development dynamics. Operation of the model is presented by results of simulation experiments using example of the “Sea Trade Port Ust-Dunaysk” State Enterprise. Simulation experiments are realised on the Ithink software platform and facilitate identification of general tendencies of object functioning and detection of the most significant weak points.
Keywords: simulation model, simulation experiment, system dynamics, flow chart, forecasting
Fig.: 17. Bibl.: 16.

Sokolovska Zoia M. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Head of the Department, Department of Economic Cybernetics and Information Technologies, Odesa Polytechnic National University (1 Shevchenko Ave., Odesa, 65044, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Yatsenko Natalia V. – Senior Lecturer, Department of Economic Cybernetics and Information Technologies, Odesa Polytechnic National University (1 Shevchenko Ave., Odesa, 65044, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

Reference to this article:
Sokolovska, Zoia M., and Yatsenko, Natalia V. (2014) “System-dynamic Models in Forecasting Development of Complex Economic Systems.” Business Inform 5:121–132.

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