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Determining the Probability of Bankruptcy of Production Enterprise
Savchenko A. M., Fisher N. V.

Savchenko, Alla M., and Fisher, Natalia V. (2020) “Determining the Probability of Bankruptcy of Production Enterprise.” Business Inform 11:186–191.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-11-186-191

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

UDC 657.6

Abstract:
The main aim of this publication is to research and substantiate the possibilities of using traditional methods of analyzing the financial position of entrepreneurial entities in conjunction with the methodology for determining the probability of bankruptcy of enterprise. The country’s economy is characterized by a financial and economic crisis, which caused a powerful wave of bankruptcies, which intensified scientific and applied research directed towards introduction of an effective system of early warning and response to the threat of critical bankruptcy at domestic enterprises. Both foreign and domestic methods of analysis of the probability of bankruptcy of enterprise are researched, their advantages, disadvantages and possibility of application are defined. The reasons for the bankruptcy of domestic economic entities are highlighted and a set of actions within the framework of the anti-crisis financial management to prevent bankruptcy is proposed. Both the Western and domestic models of bankruptcy probability assessment are considered. As an example of the Western model, the Altman’s five-factor model and the Springate model were chosen, as an example of the domestic model – the one by O. Tereshchenko and A. V. Matviychuk. The purpose of use of the models analyzed in the article is to determine the financial stability of enterprise in order to assess its financial potential. Also the benefits of using these models among other existing ones along with the factors that may impact them are highlighted. For the example of application of these models data of PJSC «Kyiv Vitamin Plant» was used. Stabilization of finances of enterprises was and will be a priority direction of financial stabilization of both the individual enterprise and the economic system. A practical solution to this problem is possible only by replacing the existing financial policy with flexible forms of it and ensuring the stability of the enterprise operation. Depending on the probability of bankruptcy, regulatory measures such as entering the voluntary administration or the transition to anti-crisis management be implemented.

Keywords: bankruptcy, financial position, financial analysis, stabilization of finances.

Tabl.: 5. Formulae: 4. Bibl.: 8.

Savchenko Alla M. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Deputy Director, Educational and Scientific Institute for Accounting, Analysis and Audit of the National University of SFS of Ukraine (31 Universytetska Str., Irpіn, Kyiv region, 08201, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Fisher Natalia V. – Masters Student, Educational and Scientific Institute for Accounting, Analysis and Audit of the National University of SFS of Ukraine (31 Universytetska Str., Irpіn, Kyiv region, 08201, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

Khryniuk, O. S., and Bova, V. A. “Modeli rozrakhunku imovirnosti bankrutstva yak metod otsinky finansovoho potentsialu pidpryiemstva“ [Models of Estimation of Bankruptcy Probability as a Method of Evaluation Financial Potential of the Enterprise]. Efektyvna ekonomika. 2018. http://www.economy.nayka.com.ua/?op=1&z=6121
Savchenko, A. M. “Analiz pokaznykiv balansu z metoiu poperedzhennia bankrutstva subiekta hospodariuvannia“ [Analysis of Indicators of Balance with the Purpose of Prevention of the Bankruptcy of the Subject of Economic Activity]. Molodyi vchenyi, no. 1 (2019): 501-505. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32839/2304-5809/2019-1-65-115
Solodukhin, S. V., and Shaitanova, Ye. S. “Suchasni pidkhody do analizu vplyvu povedinkovykh faktoriv v upravlinni ekonomichnymy obiektamy“ [Modern Approaches to the Analysis of the Influence of Behavioral Factors in the Management of Economic Objects]. Naukovyi visnyk Uzhhorodskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Seriia «Mizhnarodni ekonomichni vidnosyny ta svitove hospodarstvo». 2017. http://www.visnyk-econom.uzhnu.uz.ua/archive/15_2_2017ua/30.pdf
“Richni zvity shchodo diialnosti AT «Kyivskyi vitaminnyi zavod»“ [Annual Reports on the Activities of JSC "Kyiv Vitamin Plant"]. PAT «Kyivskyi vitaminnyi zavod». http://vitamin.com.ua/ua/Accioneram/report/report2018/
Sych, O. A. “Dyskryminantnyi analiz i yoho zastosuvannia v prohnozuvanni bankrutstva pidpryiemstva“ [Discriminant Analysis and its Application in the Prediction of Bankruptcy of the Enterprise]. Molodyi vchenyi. 2017. https://financial.lnu.edu.ua/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/78.pdf
Abramova, A. S., and Dukhnich, O. V. “Osnovni prychyny bankrutstva pidpryiemstv Ukrainy ta zakhody po zapobihanniu yikh neplatospromozhnosti“ [Main Causes of the Bankruptcy of Enterprises of Ukraine and Measures Insolvency their Enterprises]. Molodyi vchenyi. 2017. http://molodyvcheny.in.ua/files/journal/2017/11/262.pdf
Rzaieva, T. H., and Bondar, O. V. “Analitychni oznaky zrostannia ryzyku zahroz bankrutstva pidpryiemstva“ [The Analytical Signs of Increasing of Risk Threats of Enterprise Bankruptcy]. Visnyk Khmelnytskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Seriia «Ekonomichni nauky». 2017. http://elar.khnu.km.ua/jspui/bitstream/123456789/6193/1/5.pdf
Bova, V. A., and Khryniuk, O. S. “Sutnist finansovoho potentsialu pidpryiemstva“ [Essence of Enterprise Financial Capacity]. Aktualni problemy ekonomiky ta upravlinnia. 2017. http://ape.fmm.kpi.ua/article/view/102585/97661

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