BUSINESS INFORM JOURNAL.

УКР

ENG

Search:

REGISTRATION CERTIFICATE

KV #19905-9705 PR dated 02.04.2013.

FOUNDERS

RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

According to the decision No. 802 of the National Council of Television and Radio Broadcasting of Ukraine dated 14.03.2024, is registered as a subject in the field of print media.
ID R30-03156

PUBLISHER

Liburkina L. M.

SITE SECTIONS

Modeling the Occurrence of Global Financial Crises in the System of Financial Security of Countries
Shabelnyk T. V., Marena T. V., Shabelnyk M. M.

Shabelnyk, Tetiana V., Marena, Tetyana V., and Shabelnyk, Mykola M. (2020) “Modeling the Occurrence of Global Financial Crises in the System of Financial Security of Countries.” Business Inform 3:75–82.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-3-75-82

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 2

Download article (pdf) -

UDC 330.4:[339.7]

Abstract:
The publication is aimed at developing and approbation of an economic-mathematical model for controlling the occurrence of global financial crises on the basis of the implementation of control points of the macro-economic indicators of financial crises. Based on a retrospective study of the history of global financial crises and an analysis of scientific sources, the main macro-economic indicators that can signal the development of financial crisis are allocated as follows: balance of payments; ratio of external debt to the country’s GDP; exchange rate volatility; ratio of the country’s international reserves to imports. An economic-mathematical model for controlling the occurrence of global financial crises by implementing the control points of macro-economic indicators of financial crises, which can become the basis of the formation of systems for early warning of global financial crises to ensure the financial security of countries, has been proposed. The model allows monitoring and calculation of the main assessment indicators, forming an information base for the development of managerial solutions to prevent the onset of financial crises or reduce negative consequences due to their early detection. The practical approbation of the proposed model was carried out on the example of developed countries and developing countries, which play a systematically important role in the world economy, as well as on the example of Ukraine. A matrix of compliance of the optimal values of the main macro-economic indicators of financial crises has been built and the most likely sources of a financial crisis have been identified.

Keywords: global financial crises, financial security, control system, control model, macro-economic indicators.

Fig.: 1. Tabl.: 5. Formulae: 4. Bibl.: 10.

Shabelnyk Tetiana V. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Economic Cybernetics and System Analysis, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Marena Tetyana V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Pro-rector, Mariupol State University (6 Preobrazhenska Str., Kyiv, 03037, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Shabelnyk Mykola M. – Masters Student, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

Metelenko, N. H., and Khatser, M. V. “Kryza natsionalnoi bankivskoi systemy: prychyny, tendentsii ta shliakhy podolannia“ [National Banking System Crisis: Reasons, Tendencies and Ways to Solve]. Derzhava ta rehiony. Seriia «Ekonomika ta pidpryiemnytstvo», no. 4-5 (2016): 69-73.
Eichengreen, B., and Rose, A. K. “Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises“. NBER Working Paper. 1998. https://www.nber.org/papers/w6370.pdf
Bereslavska, O. I. “Suchasni bankivski kryzy: prychyny ta imovirnist povtorennia“ [Modern Banking Crises: Causes and Probability of Recurrence]. Naukovyi visnyk Natsionalnoho universytetu DPS Ukrainy. Seriia «Ekonomika, pravo», no. 3 (2013): 78-84.
Bohdan, T. “Hlobalni ryzyky borhovoho «navysannia» u rozvynutykh krainakh i zasoby yikh minimizatsii“ [Global Risks of a Debt Overhang in Developed Countries and Ways of Their Minimization]. Visnyk NBU, no. 6 (2014): 39-46.
Vovk, V. Ya., and Dmytryk, Yu. V. “Diahnostuvannia kryzy z boku tsentralnykh bankiv: zarubizhnyi ta vitchyznianyi dosvid“ [Diagnosis of the Crisis by Central Banks: Foreign and Domestic Experience]. Visnyk NBU, no. 3 (2013): 20-25.
Konchyn, V. I., and Maksymenko, M. V. “Prychyny ta proiavy borhovoi kryzy v YeS i supernytski pidkhody antykryzovoi polityky“ [Causes and Manifestations of the Debt Crisis in the EU and Rival Approaches to Anti-crisis Policy]. Visnyk [Kyivskoho instytutu biznesu ta tekhnolohii], no. 2 (2012): 19-30.
Plastun, O. L., and Makarenko, I. O. “Rol indykatoriv fondovoho rynku u prohnozuvanni ekonomichnykh kryz“ [Stock Market Indicators' Role in Forecasting of Economic Crisis]. Ekonomichnyi zhurnal Odeskoho politekhnichnoho universytetu. 2018. https://economics.opu.ua/ejopu/2018/No3/70.pdf
Bulatova, O. et al. “Modeling of the Control System of Business Processes of Management of Region as an Economic Entity“ Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research : 7th International Conference on Modeling, Development and Strategic Management of Economic System. Atlantis Press, 2019. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336724044_Modeling_of_the_Control_System_of_Business_Processes_of_Management_of_Region_as_an_Economic_Entity
“Statystychni dani servisu Knoema“ [Knoema Service Statistics]. https://knoema.com
“Statystychni dani ahentstva Bloomberg“ [Bloomberg Statistics]. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/global-risk-briefing/

FOR AUTHORS

License Contract

Conditions of Publication

Article Requirements

Regulations on Peer-Reviewing

Publication Contract

Current Issue

Frequently asked questions

INFORMATION

The Plan of Scientific Conferences

OUR PARTNERS

Journal «The Problems of Economy»

The site and its metadata are licensed under CC BY-SA.

Write to webmaster