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Debt Component of Ensuring the Sustainability of Public Finances in Ukraine: The Status and Trends
Koliada T. A., Bench L. Y., Rybina N. D.

Koliada, Tetiana A., Bench, Liliia Ya., and Rybina, Nataliya D. (2021) “Debt Component of Ensuring the Sustainability of Public Finances in Ukraine: The Status and Trends.” Business Inform 7:178–186.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2021-7-178-186

Section: Finance, Money Circulation and Credit

UDC 336.278

Abstract:
The article is aimed at evaluating the State debt and the State-guaranteed debt as components of ensuring the sustainability of Ukraine's public finances, identifying trends and factors that determine debt security and affect the pace of development of the country's economy. The article discloses the indicators of measuring the sustainability of public finances; indicators of effectiveness of the policy of ensuring the sustainability of Public Finances of Ukraine until 2030 are presented; the role and importance of debt security in ensuring the sustainability of public finances is determined. A factor analysis of the State debt and the State-guaranteed debt is carried out on the main grounds – the average US dollar exchange rate per year, GDP, revenues and expenditures of the State budget – in order to identify trends in changes in its structure and volumes for the period 2016-2020. The main financial risks and the degree of their impact on debt security are defined, a forecast of the State debt and the State-guaranteed debt of Ukraine for the medium term for 2021-2023 has been developed using the polynomial trend. The likelihood of a worsening the debt situation in Ukraine by 2023 and, as a result, a deterioration in the resilience of public finances due to the unfolding of the coronavirus pandemic, which can be equated with the crises of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015, is proved. Proposals to improve Ukraine's debt security in the context of the coronavirus pandemic have been substantiated. Prospect for further research in this direction is to prove the need to make managerial decisions to ensure the sustainability of public finances, taking into account not only macroeconomic, but also political and institutional factors, the impact of which increases significantly in the context of democracy.

Keywords: sustainability of public finances, the State debt and the State-guaranteed debt, debt security, factor analysis, domestic public debt, external public debt.

Fig.: 2. Tabl.: 8. Formulae: 1. Bibl.: 11.

Koliada Tetiana A. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Senior Research Fellow, Associate Professor, Department of Public Finance, State Tax University (31 Universytetska Str., Irpin, Kyiv region, 08205, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Bench Liliia Ya. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Finance, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Rybina Nataliya D. – Student, Faculty of Finance, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

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Baranovskyi, O. I. “Doslidzhennia teoretychnykh zasad borhovoi bezpeky derzhavy“ [Research on Theoretical Background of Debt Security of State]. Naukovyi visnyk Uzhhorodskoho universytetu. Seriia «Ekonomika». 2016. https://dspace.uzhnu.edu.ua/jspui/bitstream/lib/10831/1/ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ%20ТЕОРЕТИЧНИХ%20ЗАСАД%20БОРГОВОЇ%20БЕЗПЕКИ%20ДЕРЖАВИ.pdf
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Schick, A. “Sustainable Budget Policy: Concepts and Approaches“. OECD Journal on Budgeting, vol. 5, no. 1 (2005): 107-126. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/budget-v5-art5-en
“Richni zvity pro vykonannia Derzhavnoho biudzhetu Ukrainy za 2016-2020 rr.“ [Annual Reports on the Implementation of the State Budget of Ukraine for 2016-2020]. Derzhavna kaznacheiska sluzhba Ukrainy. https://www.treasury.gov.ua/ua
“VVP Ukrainy za 2016-2020 rr.“ [GDP of Ukraine for 2016-2020]. https://index.minfin.com.ua/ua/economy/gdp/
[Legal Act of Ukraine] (2021). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/179-2021-п#n25
“Borhova statystyka: derzhavnyi borh ta harantovanyi derzhavoiu borh“ [Debt Statistics: Public Debt and State-guaranteed Debt]. Ministerstvo finansiv Ukrainy. https://mof.gov.ua/uk/derzhavnij-borg-ta-garantovanij-derzhavju-borg
Sybirianska, Yu. V., Syvulska, N. M., and Zakhozhai, K. V. Makrofinansovyi analiz: zbirnyk analitychnykh zavdan ta keisiv [Macrofinancial Analysis: A Collection of Analytical Tasks and Cases]. Kyiv: KNEU, 2017.
“Ofitsiinyi kurs hryvni shchodo inozemnykh valiut“ [The Official Exchange Rate of Hryvnia Against Foreign Currencies]. https://bank.gov.ua/ua/markets/exchangerates?date=08.08.2021&period=daily
Koliada, T. A., and Muzychenko, H. V. “Vplyv demokratii na obsiah harantovanykh derzhavoiu sotsialnykh posluh naselenniu ta riven yikh finansovoho zabezpechennia v umovakh postkryzovoho rozvytku ekonomiky“ [Influence of Democracy on Volume of the Social Services Guaranteed by the State to the Population and Level of their Financial Maintenance in the Conditions of Postcrisis Development of Economy]. Zbirnyk naukovykh prats Natsionalnoho universytetu derzhavnoi podatkovoi sluzhby Ukrainy. 2012. http://ir.nusta.edu.ua/bitstream/doc/2781/1/3017_IR.pdf

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