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Modeling the Level of Socioeconomic Development of Regions on the Basis of Proxy Variables
Guryanova L. S., Kaganovskyi O. S., Serhiienko O. A., Mironenko A. Y.

Guryanova, Lidiya S. et al. (2023) “Modeling the Level of Socioeconomic Development of Regions on the Basis of Proxy Variables.” Business Inform 11:187–194.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2023-11-187-194

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 3

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UDC 33.303.519.85

Abstract:
The article proposes models for assessing the level of socioeconomic development and economic security of regions, on the basis of a synthesis of the proxy variable technique and cluster analysis, which allow to assess changes in interregional differentiation, spatial economic transformations, identify «pivotal» regions, assess the level of economic security of regions under conditions of limited data. The system of proxy-variables of socioeconomic development of regions is substantiated; classifications of regions by the level of socioeconomic development on the basis of methods of hierarchical, agglomerative and iterative cluster analysis have been developed; a dynamic analysis of the structure of clusters is carried out; changes in the characteristics of the distribution of proxy-variables are analyzed; an assessment of interregional differentiation and asymmetry of development is carried out. The results of the carried out cluster analysis based on proxy variables helped to conclude that recent years have led to significant transformations of the economic space in the regional aspect. In the cluster of «pivotal» regions, there is a strengthening of the positions of Dnipropetrovsk and Lviv regions, convergence with regions with an average level of development – Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa regions. The most critical situation is typical for Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions. Donetsk region has moved from a cluster of regions with an average level of development to a cluster of regions with crisis development. The relocation of enterprises and smoothing out the asymmetry in the variable of «Growth of legal entities» currently affects the indicators of budget security of the regions to a lesser extent. Kharkiv region, despite the deterioration of the socioeconomic situation, maintains its position in the cluster of «pivotal» regions. The obtained results can be used in the system of anticipative management of regional development to adapt regional strategies to new realities.

Keywords: region, socioeconomic development of region, economic security, mathematical modeling, clustering, proxy variables.

Fig.: 8. Bibl.: 8.

Guryanova Lidiya S. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Economic Cybernetics and Applied Economics, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Kaganovskyi Oleksandr S. – PhD, Postgraduate Student, Department of Management and Business, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Serhiienko Olena A. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Entrepreneurship, Trade and Logistics, National Technical University «Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute» (2 Kyrpychova Str., Kharkіv, 61002, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Mironenko Artem Yu. – Master, Department of Economic Cybernetics and System Analysis, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

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“Ekonomika rehioniv Ukrainy v umovakh viiny: ryzyky ta napriamky zabezpechennia stiikosti“ [The Economy of the Regions of Ukraine in the Conditions of War: Risks and Directions for Ensuring Stability]. Lviv : DU «Instytut rehionalnykh doslidzhen imeni M. I. Dolishnyoho NAN Ukrainy», 2022. https://ird.gov.ua/irdp/p20220033.pdf
Poharska, O. “Ekonomika Ukrainy v umovakh viiny“ [The Economy of Ukraine in the Conditions of War]. Natsionalnyi bank Ukrainy. June 01, 2023. https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/Poharska_pr_01-02.06.2023.pdf?v=4
Haidutskyi, I., and Holoborodko, A. “Problemy dosiahnennia tsilei staloho rozvytku v umovakh viiny“ [Problems of Achieving the Goals of Sustainable Development in the Conditions of War]. Biznes, innovatsii, menedzhment: problemy ta perspektyvy. 2022. http://confmanagement.kpi.ua/proc/article/view/272126
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Hurianova, L. S. Modeliuvannia zbalansovanoho sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku rehioniv [Modeling of Balanced Socio-economic Development of Regions]. Berdiansk: FOP Tkachuk O. V., 2013.
Klebanova, T. et al. “Classification of Regions of Ukraine by the Level of Social Tension“. WSEAS Transactions on Systems and Control, vol. 15 (2020): 576-584. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37394/23203.2020.15.57

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