BUSINESS INFORM JOURNAL.

УКР

ENG

Search:

REGISTRATION CERTIFICATE

KV #19905-9705 PR dated 02.04.2013.

FOUNDERS

RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

According to the decision No. 802 of the National Council of Television and Radio Broadcasting of Ukraine dated 14.03.2024, is registered as a subject in the field of print media.
ID R30-03156

PUBLISHER

Liburkina L. M.

SITE SECTIONS

A Cost Forecasting Model for Innovation Activities in the Industrial Sector of Ukraine
Volosiuk M. V., Prokopovich L. B.

Volosiuk, Maryna V., and Prokopovich, Leonid B. (2023) “A Cost Forecasting Model for Innovation Activities in the Industrial Sector of Ukraine.” Business Inform 5:73–79.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2023-5-73-79

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 9

Download article (pdf) -

UDC 330.4:519.8

Abstract:
The article considers the problem of increasing the reliability of estimation of the cost of innovation activity in the industrial sector of Ukraine. Using as primary data the information of the previous study, the dependence of the costs of innovation activity on a group of factors is analyzed, as a result of which it was decided to build several multi-factor regression models. In order to build this group of models, the least squares method was used. In the course of checking the obtained multivariate models, it was found that each model has internal parameters in which the value of p-values exceeds the limit value, which means that the obtained values of the internal parameters of the model are not significant. Therefore, all multivariate models constructed using the least squares method were eliminated from further research. At the next stage of the research, one-factor regression models were constructed using the least squares method, where the amount of mastered production of new types of products (technological processes) was used as a factor. After sorting out the non-essential models, the remaining ones were compared with respect to their quality characteristics. However, in all univariate models, it was found that the calculated values of the average approximation error exceeded 10%. Therefore, yet again, all models have been eliminated from further research. Due to the impossibility of obtaining a model using the least squares method in the simulation process, it was decided to use machine learning methods with a teacher. Among the methods of machine learning, it was decided to pay attention to the following methods: k-near neighbors, regression trees, and neural network method. Taking into account that these models are not adversely affected by the multi-collinearity between factors, both the data for the models were used raw data without additional transformations. According to the results of the research, it was found that among the models using machine learning methods, the best models were the binary regression decision tree (with a hyperparameter value of max_depth = 3) and the neural network model. When comparing these models, it was found that the model based on the decision tree has a smaller value of the average approximation error, which means that this model can be recommended for use in making management decisions on forecasting the costs of innovation activity of industrial enterprises in the future.

Keywords: innovation and technological development, innovation activity, industrial sector, costs, regression models, k-near neighbors, decision tree, neural network.

Fig.: 2. Tabl.: 8. Formulae: 13. Bibl.: 8.

Volosiuk Maryna V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Management, Admiral Makarov National University of Shipbuilding (9 Heroiv Ukrainy Ave., Mykolaiv, 54025, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Prokopovich Leonid B. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Accounting and Economic Analysis, Admiral Makarov National University of Shipbuilding (9 Heroiv Ukrainy Ave., Mykolaiv, 54025, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

“Industry 5.0 - Towards a sustainable, human-centric and resilient European industry“. Publications Office of the European Union, 2021. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2777/308407
Problemy ta perspektyvy rozvytku innovatsiinoi diialnosti v Ukraini: vyklyky voiennoho chasu : tezy dopovidei XIV Mizhnarodnoho biznes-forumu [Problems and Prospects of the Development of Innovative Activity in Ukraine: Challenges of Wartime: Theses of Reports of the XIV International Business Forum]. Kyiv, 2023. DOI: 10.31617/k.knute.2023-03-23
“Nauka, tekhnolohii ta innovatsii“ [Science, Technology and Innovation]. Derzhavna sluzhba statystyky Ukrainy. https://ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/menu/menu_u/ni.htm
Ishchuk, S. O., and Sozanskyi, L. I. “Porivnialna statystychna otsinka innovatsiinoi diialnosti promyslovoho sektoru ekonomiky Ukrainy (rehionalnyi rozriz)“ [Comparative Statistical Assessment of Innovation Activity of the Industrial Sector of the Economy of Ukraine (Regional Context)]. Statystyka Ukrainy, no. 1 (2022): 47-58. DOI: 10.31767/su.1(96)2022.01.05
Vahonova, O. H., Hosalova, S. V., and Terekhov, Ye. V. “Suchasnyi stan innovatsiinoi diialnosti na promyslovykh pidpryiemstvakh Ukrainy“ [Current State of Innovative Activity at Industrial Enterprises of Ukraine]. Ekonomichnyi visnyk, no. 3 (2020): 189-196. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33271/ebdut/71.189
Voinarenko, M. P., Dzhedzhula, V. V., and Yepifanova, I. Yu. “Modeliuvannia protsesu pryiniattia rishennia shchodo dzherel finansuvannia innovatsiinoi diialnosti“ [Modelling the Process of Making Decisions on Sources of Financing of Innovation Activity]. Ekonomichnyi chasopys-XXI. 2016. http://ea21journal.world/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ea-V160-25.pdf
Synilova, O. M. “Vplyv innovatsii na vartist promyslovykh pidpryiemstv Ukrainy“ [The Impact of Innovation on the Industrial Enterprises' Cost in Ukraine]. Visnyk Kharkivskoho natsionalnoho universytetu imeni V. N. Karazina. Seriia «Ekonomichna», no. 101 (2021): 130-140. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26565/2311-2379-2021-101-13
Volosiuk, M. V. “Reindustrializatsiia Ukrainy yak peredumova ekonomichnoho zrostannia“ [The Reindustrialization of Ukraine as a Prerequisite for Economic Growth]. Biznes Inform, no. 4 (2020): 63-70. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-4-63-70

FOR AUTHORS

License Contract

Conditions of Publication

Article Requirements

Regulations on Peer-Reviewing

Publication Contract

Current Issue

Frequently asked questions

INFORMATION

The Plan of Scientific Conferences

OUR PARTNERS

Journal «The Problems of Economy»

The site and its metadata are licensed under CC BY-SA.

Write to webmaster