BUSINESS INFORM №1-2018

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Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling
UDC 336.001.57.004
Hlotov Y. O., Popova O. M.
The Dynamics of Electricity Production in Ukraine and its Forecasting (p. 152 - 160)
The article is aimed at identifying the trend relevance of electricity generation by thermal, nuclear, and hydro power plants in Ukraine on the basis of fractal analysis together with its forecasting. The publication carries out a fractal analysis of electricity production by thermal, nuclear, and hydro power plants in the period from 2001 to 2017, and makes forecast for 2018. For analyzing of such time series, the publication uses the method of Harold Edwin Hirst (R/S-analysis). The Hirst method allows to analyze time series and distinguish random and fractal time series, as well as make conclusions about the presence of non-recurrent cycles, long-term memory, etc. A fractal analysis of time series of electricity production by thermal, nuclear, and hydro power plants in 2001–2017 in Ukraine allowed to determine that they come under antipersistent. Because the antipersistent time series have a quality of «return to average», the exponential smoothing and moving average methods have been selected for the forecasting.
Keywords: trend, fractal analysis, time series, R/S-analysis, antipersistent time series, persistent time series, moving average.
Fig.: 2. Tabl.: 5. Formulae: 9. Bibl.: 15.

Hlotov Yevhen O. – Candidate of Sciences (Engineering), Associate Professor, Head of the Department, Department of Economic and Mathematical Methods and Information Technology, Kharkiv Institute of Finance of the Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics (5 Pletnovskyi Lane, Kharkіv, 61003, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Popova Olha M. – Senior Lecturer, Department of Economical and Mathematical Methods and Information Technologies, Kharkiv Institute of Finance of the Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics (5 Pletnovskyi Lane, Kharkіv, 61003, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

Article is written in Ukrainian
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Reference to this article:
Hlotov, Yevhen O., and Popova, Olha M. (2018) “The Dynamics of Electricity Production in Ukraine and its Forecasting.” Business Inform 1:152–160.

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