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BUSINESS INFORM №10-2014

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13

Section: Regional Economy
UDC 332.144: 303.094.7(477.54)
Omarov Shakhin A.
Evaluation of Scenarios of the Socio-Economic Development of the Kharkiv Region Based on Simulation Model (p. 87 - 98)

In the article results of research aimed at building a simulation model of the development scenarios of the Kharkiv region with evaluation of the designed model are presented. The simulation model consists of the following units: economy, population, budget, environment, innovation, foreign economic activity and has been implemented by means of the simulation modeling system Vensim 6.1. On the basis of the model, with purpose of evaluating the potential areas of development, the following groups have been designed and analyzed: base, investment, innovation and investment scenarios. The results of the base scenario analysis showed that while the trends of the last 10-12 years will continue to persist, paces of economic growth of the Kharkiv region will be slowed down, although the positive developments would occur in almost all economic activities. The scenario modeling of the socio-economic development of the Kharkov region revealed that in most of the criteria the group of investment scenarios is dominated by a group of innovation and investment scenarios, the best situation shows the innovative investment scenario in the machine-building industry. It was also determined that in any case of implementation of one scenario the foreign direct investment should be facilitated concerning the development of industrial production, not the financial activities. It is proved that the costs of innovations will contribute to improvement of development not only in the elaboration and development of the new technologies, but also of the new innovative products.
Keywords: socio-economic development, modeling, simulation model, scenario, region
Fig.: 3. Tabl.: 9. Bibl.: 12.

Omarov Shakhin A. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Applicant, Research Centre of Industrial Problems of Development of NAS of Ukraine (2 floor 1-a Inzhenernyi Ln., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)

Article is written in Ukrainan
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Reference to this article:
Omarov, Shakhin A. (2014) “Evaluation of Scenarios of the Socio-Economic Development of the Kharkiv Region Based on Simulation Model.” Business Inform 10:87–98.


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