ENG

Search:

REGISTRATION CERTIFICATE

KV #19905-9705 PR dated 02.04.2013.

FOUNDERS

RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

ROR

ЕДРПОУ 05481984

According to the decision No. 802 of the National Council of Television and Radio Broadcasting of Ukraine dated 14.03.2024, is registered as a subject in the field of print media.
ID R30-03156

PUBLISHER

Liburkina L. M.

CATALOG

BUSINESS INFORM №11-2013

The title and content

ABSTRACTS AND INFORMATION ABOUT AUTHORS

15

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling
UDC 330.4
Polshkov Y. M.
On Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators with the Help of Finite-Difference Equations and Econometric Methods (p. 95 - 100)
The article considers data on the gross domestic product, consumer expenditures, gross investments and volume of foreign trade for the national economy. It is assumed that time is a discrete variable with one year iteration. The article uses finite-difference equations. It considers models with a high degree of the regulatory function of the state with respect to the consumer market. The econometric component is based on the hypothesis that each of the above said macro-economic indicators for this year depends on the gross domestic product for the previous time periods. Such an assumption gives a possibility to engage the least-squares method for building up linear models of the pair regression. The article obtains the time series model, which allows building point and interval forecasts for the gross domestic product for the next year based on the values of the gross domestic product for the current and previous years. The article draws a conclusion that such forecasts could be considered justified at least in the short-term prospect. From the mathematical point of view the built model is a heterogeneous finite-difference equation of the second order with constant ratios. The article describes specific features of such equations. It illustrates graphically the analytical view of solutions of the finite-difference equation. This gives grounds to differentiate national economies as sustainable growth economies, one-sided, weak or being in the stage of successful re-formation. The article conducts comparison of the listed types with specific economies of modern states.
Keywords: dynamic model, econometric equation, macro-economic indicators, forecast
Fig.: 2. Tabl.: 1. Formulae: 16. Bibl.: 10.

Polshkov Yulian M. – Candidate of Sciences (Physics and Mathematics), Associate Professor, Department of Mathematics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University (21 600-richchia Str., Vinnytsia, 21021, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

Article is written in Russian
Downloads/views: 201

Download article (pdf) -

Reference to this article:
Polshkov, Yulian M. (2013) “On Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators with the Help of Finite-Difference Equations and Econometric Methods.” Business Inform 11:95–100.

1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 |

FOR AUTHORS

License Contract

Conditions of Publication

Article Requirements

Regulations on Peer-Reviewing

Current Issue

Frequently asked questions

INFORMATION