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BUSINESS INFORM №4-2017

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17

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling
UDC 330.3:330.4
Andrenko O. A., Mordovtsev O. S., Mordovtsev S. M.
Forecasting Investment Risks in Conditions of Uncertainty (p. 113 - 118)

The article is aimed at studying the topical problem of evaluation and forecasting risks of investment activity of enterprises in conditions of uncertainty. Generalizing the researches on qualitative and quantitative methods for evaluating investment risks has helped to reveal certain shortcomings of the proposed approaches, to note in most of the publications there are no results as to any practical application, and to allocate promising directions. On the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets, a model of forecasting the expected risk has been proposed, making use of the Gauss membership function, which has certain advantages over the multi-angular membership functions. Dependences of investment risk from the parameters characterizing the investment project have been obtained. Using the formulas obtained, the total risk of investing in innovation project depending on the boundary conditions has been defined. As the researched target, index of profitability has been selected. The model provides the potential investors and developers with forecasting possible scenarios of investment process to make informed managerial decisions about the appropriateness of introduction and implementation of a project.
Keywords: investment risk, evaluation, forecasting, fuzzy sets, membership function, index of profitability.
Fig.: 7. Tabl.: 1. Formulae: 8. Bibl.: 9.

Andrenko Olena A. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Financial and Economic Safety, Account and Audit, O. M. Beketov National University of Urban Economy in Kharkiv (17 Marshala Bazhanova Str., Kharkіv, 61002, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Mordovtsev Oleksandr S. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of International Business and Finance, National Technical University «Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute» (2 Kyrpychova Str., Kharkіv, 61002, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Mordovtsev Sergii M. – Candidate of Sciences (Engineering), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Higher Mathematics, O. M. Beketov National University of Urban Economy in Kharkiv (17 Marshala Bazhanova Str., Kharkіv, 61002, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

Article is written in Russian
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Reference to this article:
Andrenko, Olena A., Mordovtsev, Oleksandr S., and Mordovtsev, Sergii M. (2017) “Forecasting Investment Risks in Conditions of Uncertainty.” Business Inform 4:113–118.


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