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BUSINESS INFORM №4-2017

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34

Section: Labour economics and social policy
UDC 311.3:331.56
Korepanov O. S., Prus Y. I., Chala T. G.
The Short-Term Forecasting of the Labor Market Supply in Ukraine (p. 216 - 222)

The article is aimed at developing a short-term forecast of the labor market supply in Ukraine. The main methods for forecasting the development of socio-economic processes, as well as advantages and disadvantages of using them, have been considered. The article discloses essence of the conception of underutilization of labor force, which, in accordance with the updated international standards on labor statistics, has superseded the conception of economic activity. In the course of the study usage of the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to analyse and forecast the time series of socio-economic indicators has been substantiated, also an algorithm for applying this method has been developed. On the basis of the official statistical monthly data on the number of registered unemployed from January 2007 to March 2017, with the application of the Caterpillar SSA software package, a forecast of this indicator has been developed from early 2016 to the end of 2018. Prospect for further research in this direction will be developing a forecast of labor demand in order to improve public policies to balance supply and demand in the labor market.
Keywords: labor supply, conception of underutilization of labor force, forecasting, analysis of the singular spectrum.
Fig.: 3. Tabl.: 3. Formulae: 1. Bibl.: 22.

Korepanov Oleksiy S. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Statistics, Accounting and Auditing, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Prus Yuliia I. – Lecturer, Department of Management and Administration, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Chala Tеtyana G. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Accounting and Auditing, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

Article is written in Ukrainan
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Reference to this article:
Korepanov, Oleksiy S., Prus, Yuliia I., and Chala, Tеtyana G. (2017) “The Short-Term Forecasting of the Labor Market Supply in Ukraine.” Business Inform 4:216–222.


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